Countdown Numbers Round: Which Tiles Give the Best Odds?
In the Countdown numbers round, you choose six tiles, a random three-digit target appears, and you have 30 seconds to reach it using each tile at most once with addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. The question every player asks is: how many of the big numbers should I pick? We settled it with data.
We wrote a solver that plays the round exactly by the rules (every intermediate result must be a positive whole number) and ran it over 2,000 random rounds for each possible selection, each with a fresh random target from 101 to 999. Here is how often each selection could reach the target.
The results
| Your selection | Solved exactly | Within 10 (still scores) |
|---|---|---|
| 0 large, 6 small | 83.8% | 97.7% |
| 1 large, 5 small | 97.2% | 100% |
| 2 large, 4 small | 98.4% | 100% |
| 3 large, 3 small | 95.2% | 100% |
| 4 large, 2 small | 89.4% | 99.9% |
On the show, landing the target exactly scores 10 points, within 5 scores 7, and within 10 scores 5. So the "within 10" column is how often you score anything at all.
What the data tells you
- Two large and four small is the best pick, solvable exactly 98.4% of the time. One large and five small is almost as good at 97.2%, and both reach a scoring answer essentially every time.
- Six small is the trap. It looks friendly, but it fails to hit the target exactly about one time in six, far more often than any other choice. Without a large number, big three-digit targets are simply hard to build.
- Four large is nearly as weak. Large numbers are blunt instruments: 75 and 100 jump in big steps, so fine-tuning to an exact target becomes hard. You still almost always get within 10, but exact solves drop to about 89%.
The popular wisdom on the show, usually "one large, five small" or "two large, four small", turns out to be right. The data just shows two large has a slight edge.
Having the right tiles is only half the battle
These figures assume perfect play: our solver always finds a solution if one exists. In 30 seconds, a human will not. So the selection only gives you the best raw material; the method is what turns it into points.
A reliable three-step method
- Find an anchor. Multiply a large number to land near the target. If the target is 617 and you hold 75, note that 75 × 8 = 600, close.
- Build the multiplier from your small numbers if it is not on the board.
- Adjust with whatever is left, adding or subtracting the difference.
A worked example
Tiles 75, 50, 8, 5, 3, 1, target 617.
- 75 + 50 = 125, and 125 × 5 = 625. That is 8 above the target.
- 625 − 8 = 617. Solved, with the 3 and 1 unused.
Overshooting and subtracting back is usually easier than building up exactly from below.
Don't leave points on the table
Because almost every selection gets you within 10 of the target, the biggest mistake is declaring nothing. Within 10 still scores 5 points, and within 5 scores 7. If the exact answer will not come, lock in your nearest result before the clock runs out.
You can check any round against a perfect solver with our free Countdown solver, which shows the arithmetic step by step. For the letters round and the Conundrum, see our Countdown strategy guide and Conundrum tips.
EasyUnscramble is independent and not affiliated with Channel 4, ITV Studios or the Countdown programme. The figures above come from our own simulation of the standard rules.
Related reading: Countdown strategy guide · Conundrum tips
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